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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: August 15th, 2016 | 0 Comments

1. NOT THE LONGEST – The longest bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 lasted 3,452 calendar days, i.e., the 9 ½ years from 10/11/90 to 3/24/00. The current bull market for the S&P 500 is 2,713 calendar days long as of Friday 8/12/16, i.e., the approximate 7 ½ years from 3/09/09 to last Friday 8/12/16. The current bull would have to last until 8/22/18 (i.e., 2 more years from now) to reach 3,453 calendar days. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. PLAN NOT WORKING – Citizens in Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden are saving a higher percentage of their income in 2016 than in any year since 1995. Ironically, all 3 countries are issuing government bonds that are subject to negative interest rates, a strategy designed to encourage borrowing and investing (source: OECD).

3. YOU CAN LEAVE WORK EARLY – An average American worker has increased his/her productivity by +99% in the last 40 years, i.e., an average worker can complete in 1 hour as of 6/30/16 the same amount of work that it took him/her 2 hours to finish as of 6/30/76 (source: Department of Labor).

4. CHANGES – Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump proposed on Monday 8/08/16 a reduction of the top US corporate marginal tax rate from 35% to 15%. Trump also proposed a 10% one-time tax on the $2.3 trillion of profits parked in the overseas subsidiaries of American multinational firms (source: BTN Research).

5. VOTING – Presidential candidates have won the White House yet lost their home state only 2 times in the last 100 years; Richard Nixon (NY) in 1968 and Woodrow Wilson (NJ) in 1916 (source: presidentelect.us).

6. NOTHING PAID – Over the years 2006-2012, 67% of the C-corporations in the United States paid zero federal income tax in any of the 7 years. The C-corps legally were able to zero out their tax liability through numerous deductions and credits (source: Government Accountability Office).

7. SELLING GOODS AROUND THE WORLD – 59% of the revenues of the average technology company within the S&P 500 come from foreign sales (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices).

8. NOT ONE PENNY – 44% of the households in the United States headed by a currently employed individual (i.e., a “working” household) do not have any money invested on a pre-tax basis in a defined contribution plan, e.g., a 401(k) retirement plan (source: Government Accountability Office).

9. SUMMER ROAD TRIP – Of the 19.0 million barrels of petroleum products consumed on a daily basis by the United States, 52% of our usage (or 9.8 million barrels a day) corresponds to our nation’s daily gasoline consumption (source: Department of Energy).

10. JUST A NUMBERS GUY – Andreas Georgiou, the former head of Greece’s national statistical office, is facing up to 10 years in prison for inflating the country’s deficit. Georgiou’s 2010 work, which pegged his nation’s 2009 deficit at 15.8% of GDP, is accused by Greece’s supreme court of producing an exaggerated percentage that allowed Greece’s 3 main creditors (International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and the European Commission) to implement severe bailout terms in Greece’s 2010 rescue package (source: Financial Times).

11. MOSTLY DEBT – As of 12/31/15, 76% of the investment portfolios backing the future liabilities of the American life insurance industry were allocated to bond investments (source: S&P Global Market Intelligence).

12. REMOVE THE CAP – Earnings up to $118,500 in 2016 are subject to payroll taxes. An estimated $180 billion annually in additional payroll taxes would be collected over the next decade if the $118,500 cap was eliminated (source: Tax Foundation).

13. IMPACT OF LOWER RATES – The discount rate used to calculate the present value of pension liabilities has historically been benchmarked to high-quality corporate bond yields. Every 1 percentage point drop in the discount rate produces an approximate +12% increase in the present value of pension liabilities (source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College).

14. GREENBACK POWER – 90% of all global trades, including transactions that do not involve an American buyer or seller, are conducted in US dollars (source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management).

15. DIALED IN BIG TIME – Jim Furyk’s round of 58 in the final day of play of the PGA golf tournament on Sunday 8/07/16 in Connecticut is the lowest round ever in a men’s PGA event. There have been 1.5 million rounds played in the history of the PGA dating back to 1929 (source: PGA).

 

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